First, the IHME models were wildly pessimistic. Looked like you'd be lucky to get a spot on the linoleum in a hospital in Maryland when you need an ICU bed.
Now are they wildly pessimistic?
The increasingly implausible IHME model with which we're all familiar imagines deaths in the U.S. dropping below 1,000 per day just three days from now. Yesterday we registered 2,700. Today, according to the latest data, we're slightly north of 2,000, which is worse than the 1,700-1,800 we were registering on weekdays last week. If you believe IHME, we should see daily deaths nationwide sink below 500 on May 10, then below 100 on May 25, and then reach single digits on June 13 before dipping to zero on June 30. That seems wildly unlikely. These dang predictive models have sure done a lousy job predicting. And I don't know about you, but I find that frustrating. Are we gonna drop to near zero, have a slow but constant burn for months with occasional spikes, or just get another hump? Dunno. Ask the experts? They appear to be guessing and doing about as well as me.Also, that linked pessimistic article is Allahpundit, so assign credibility based on that as you may.